OMFIF’s Digital Monetary Institute recently published a report on the Future of Payments. The report is a thorough examination of non-cash payment developments but two elements stood out. Firstly, a striking infographic showing the age profiles of four parts of the world and, secondly, more information on the growth, importance and impact of mobile payments.

The Bundesbank (BBk) provides 25.5% of the fully paid capital that underpins the European Central Bank (ECB), but it has brought into circulation 29.9% of the value of coins in circulation (€8.46 billion). This figure has been stable for some time.

Commercial banks are at the heart of the cash cycle and their branches have been their key customer touchpoint. If you read the news section on bank branches, you might think they are to become a side show for commercial banks. RBR held an online conference on branch transformation at the end of November. The move by customers online, using apps and telephone banking is accelerating a trend to slim down branch networks, and so this event was a useful insight into the future branch.

In its latest Quarterly Bulletin, the Bank of England published an article ‘Cash in the time of COVID’. The article seeks to explain what it referred to as the cash ‘paradox’, that cash in circulation is up while cash transaction volumes are down, which has been brought into sharp relief during the pandemic.

Did much happen this year? A moment to reflect.

YouGov have carried out a survey in 21 countries asking about payments in the pandemic, which provides an interesting snapshot on the relative impact of COVID-19 on cash usage around the world.

Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) are a less talked about element of the CBDC conversation, perceived as more operational than revolutionary. However, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has successfully concluded a proof-of-concept project with the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and SIX to explore the performance of the technology to integrate a tokenised digital asset and central bank money.

Andy Haldane, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, made a speech about the move to digital payments. Despite all the innovation of credit cards, ATMs, faster payments, open banking etc., he quoted Thomas Philippon, Professor of Finance at the New York University Stern School of Business, who estimates that the unit cost of financial services has hardly changed over the last century.

Allied Universal has offered 245 pence in cash for each G4S plc share and agreement on the terms of the offer have been reached. This values the company at £3.8 billion, representing a premium of about 68% to the closing price of G4S shares on 11 September 2020, and an 11% premium to the highest closing price in the previous year. GardaWorld had offered 235 pence per share, some 4% less. G4S Directors intend unanimously to recommend that their shareholders accept the offer.

The UK Parliament’s Public Accounts Committee (PAC) reported on the production and distribution of cash at the end of November. PAC was concerned that the cash distribution infrastructure is at risk, there is a lack of urgency in the response of the public bodies responsible with little action, a lack of clarity about the end goal and no realistic plan. Banknote stocks appear unnecessarily high without a clear explanation of why, and coin production appears unsustainable and not cost effective in the light of falling demand.

The South China Morning Post has published its first China FinTech report. Mobile payments now account for four out of every five payments and for more than half the value of all non-cash retail payments for consumers and businesses. The report states that China’s massive domestic financial market has an estimated 87% of consumers using FinTech services, a $29 trillion mobile payment market in 2019.

David Lott of the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta gave an interview to ATM Market Place based on their 2019 consumer survey and some additional surveys carried out this year, as well as their normal cash processing role.

In the July edition of Cash and Payments News Paul Blond, Managing Partner of The Blond Group, wrote about the initial impact of COVID-19 in Australia and how not only cash, but all payment methods took a tumble as the widespread lockdown of the country impacted the economy. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishing its latest data, Paul has taken a look at the numbers.

The global pandemic sadly forced the postponement of the Asia Cash Cycle Seminar (ICCOS) due to be held in Manila in September. However, this has allowed Currency Research to pivot to using virtual platforms for community engagement and education. Having recently and successfully run virtual events for Europe and Americas, the attention now falls to Asia.

Chris Skinner recently wrote in his blog, www.thefinanser.com, about the future role of bank branches. His story was based on two Brandseye surveys of consumer sentiment in the UK about banks, one pre-COVID and the other, more recently, ‘during’ COVID.

When disruption occurs and the past is no longer a reliable starting point and guide for the future, understanding the fundamentals is important. A recent paper published in CESIFO working papers (8574 2020) adds to our knowledge of household demand for cash.

In January the Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technology team from the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the US issued a comprehensive toolkit to help central banks develop their Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) policy by giving them a step by step process to follow, supported by detailed worksheets.

Garanti BBVA has developed software using Big Data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to manage its cash logistics. Alper Sayin, Head of Cash Planning and Operations, has written about his experience introducing this software and how they are using it.

Norges Bank Deputy Governor Ida Wolden Bache spoke recently about the Bank’s thinking on CBDCs, or DSPs as they are known in Norway. Even with cash steady since the Spring at 4% of transactions, surely the lowest figure in the world, Norges Bank is in no hurry to issue a DSP. It continues though, to think and prepare.

Just over five decades after the world’s first ATM was installed in London, conditions have converged to make the reinvention of the ATM inevitable. Next Gen ATMs are an idea, or vision, whose time has come.