The Danish physicist, Niel Bohrs, said, ‘prediction is very difficult, particularly if it’s about the future’. Few would argue with him, however, here we go… What will be the big themes in 2026 when it comes to cash and payments? Herewith an eclectic mix of suggestions.

A Bank of Italy paper has pointed out there is a link between permissionless blockchains, the most common settlement infrastructures in the crypto ecosystem, and the volatility of the prices of crypto-assets and the availability and security of these infrastructures.

In 2025 Nigeria suffered from severe cash shortages. In response a special committee was established, chaired by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso. The committee undertook a holistic and comprehensive end-to-end review of the entire cash lifecycle: from production, to transportation, to distribution, and eventual access by consumers.

Cash management is changing as cash moves from being a core business for commercial banks and retailers to being a cost centre. Today’s cash management companies (CMC), such as Loomis, are changing their ‘offer’ to that of ‘cash-as-a-service’ rather than just offering traditional cash-in-transit (CIT) cash services.

Data from LINK, in the UK, shows that compared to 2024 ATM transaction volumes were 1.27 billion (down 8.3%) and withdrawal values were £76.67billion (down 4.2%). The average ATM withdrawal value in 2025 was £92.11.

A Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper calculates the marginal cost of an electronic funds transfer (EFT) to be about C$0.55 per transaction ($0.4) and the total fixed cost of running an EFT to be C$83 million per year ($60.23 million).

The Rwanda Bankers’ Association (RBA) has considered lessons to be learnt from the implementations of CBDC in the Bahamas, Jamaica and Nigeria.

The CB+DC Conference, which focuses on digital currencies and payments, will hold two events in 2026, one in Kuala Lumpur hosted at Sasana Kijang, the Bank Negara Malaysia’s training facility, 12–14 May and one in Amsterdam 27–29 October. Registration is now open.

At the end of last year, the Eurosystem Research Network on Cash (EURECA) held a workshop at the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider the latest currency research.

At the Future of Cash conference in Warsaw last November, there were a number of presentations and conversations about ATM business models and interchange fees.

A new Deutsche Bundesbank study, ‘The cost of payment methods in the retail sector accessible’, analyses both monetary costs – fees, charges, equipment and transport costs – and non-monetary costs – the time spent by retailers using payment instruments at the point of sale or for administrative expenses.