A new paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta seeks to understand whether, how and to what extent merchants in the US influence consumers’ payment choices1. Using the 2024 Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice, which recorded stated preferred payment methods and then actual choices at the point-of-sale (POS), the authors analysed why consumers sometimes deviate from their preferred option.

Perhaps it should be no surprise that the chairman of New Zealand’s (NZ) Ministerial Advisory Group on Transnational, Serious & Organised Crime should say on a podcast that ‘Cash is the primary currency of organised crime. And so a huge amount of our cash right now, as we sit here, is in the hands of organised crime’.

A paper titled ‘Cash Demand and Demographic Changes in Japan’ by Hiroshi Fujiki of Chuo University, published recently by the Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, considers the impact of Japan’s rapidly ageing population and the increase of digital payments.

At the end of last year, the Eurosystem Research Network on Cash (EURECA) held a workshop at the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider the latest currency research.

Cash management is changing as cash moves from being a core business for commercial banks and retailers to being a cost centre. Today’s cash management companies (CMC), such as Loomis, are changing their ‘offer’ to that of ‘cash-as-a-service’ rather than just offering traditional cash-in-transit (CIT) cash services.

The Danish physicist, Niel Bohrs, said, ‘prediction is very difficult, particularly if it’s about the future’. Few would argue with him, however, here we go… What will be the big themes in 2026 when it comes to cash and payments? Herewith an eclectic mix of suggestions.

Reviewing the year shows that the arguments for and examples of the value of cash have piled up this year and come into sharper relief. At the same time, our progress in turning that into a new cash era remains limited. Concurrently, the landscape for new digital payments has got more complicated and big issues remain to be resolved. So we end the year with many positives and much to do.

We are in a different place compared with even two years ago and the conversation about the future of cash is changing substantially. This was visible in the agenda and the conversations of this year’s Future of Cash conference, which took place in Warsaw at the start of November.

Pascal Wicht presented SICPA’s research on Gen Z at the Future of Cash. The title of the presentation was ‘Cash in a Careless System – Reframing Value, Autonomy and Resilience’. And it was a thought-provoking presentation.

The ATMIA held its Europe and Emerging Markets summit in London 14-15 October.